USA TODAY
As baseball's campaign season hits the
final two weeks, USA TODAY Sports breaks down the divisive issues: Can a
21-year-old rookie win an MVP? Will a drug scandal stick to a slugger? A
knuckleballer as a Cy Young Award winner? A look at the swing votes to
be won in the stretch drive:
AL MVP
The front-runner:
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels. This true five-tool player doesn't have
the power numbers of Miguel Cabrera (38 homers, 123 RBI), but he has
everything else, leading the league with 116 runs and 43 stolen bases,
despite toiling in the minors the first 20 games of the year. The only
dent is that the Angels might not reach the playoffs, but the Detroit
Tigers might not, either.
Finishing strong: Adrian
Beltre, Texas Rangers. He's hitting a major-league leading .390 with 14
homers, 25 RBI and 24 runs since Aug.20. He has 33 homers and 17
game-winning RBI, tying Curtis Granderson of the New York Yankees for
the most in the American League.
Stat to know:
63. Trout can become the third rookie in 63 years to lead the league in
batting average and stolen bases, previously accomplished by Ichiro
Suzuki of the Seattle Mariners in 2001 and Jackie Robinson for the
Brooklyn Dodgers in 1949.
When the polls close:
Trout has the numbers, and just as important, the hype, to win the
award. Cabrera is his stiffest competition, but with the Tigers fading
in the AL Central race, it would impede Cabrera's path to win his first
MVP award. Beltre's run figures to be just a little too late.
NL MVP
The front-runner: Andrew
McCutchen. The Pittsburgh Pirates are fading, but their center fielder
has shaken an August slump. Was No. 2 in the league in
on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS) entering Tuesday.
Finishing strong: Buster
Posey's candidacy has gotten a boost from a huge second half that
features the highest batting average (.392) and OPS (1.122) in the
majors since the All-Star break. With two weeks to go, he has more RBI
in the second half (50) than he had in the first (43).
Stat to know: McCutchen
(6.7), Ryan Braun (6.5) and Posey (6.4, tied with David Wright) rank
1-2-3 in the league in wins above replacement, a stat that tries to
measure a player's value compared to his replacement.
When the polls close:
Posey noses out the competition. Braun will finish with bigger overall
numbers and might wind up leading in home runs and RBI, but his image
remains tainted from a failed drug test that was overturned on appeal.
Posey gets points as a catcher for a playoff shoo-in, while McCutchen's
Pirates are drifting out of the race.
AL CY YOUNG
The front-runner: The
Tampa Bay Rays' David Price (18 wins, 2.54 ERA) leads the most
competitie race in the majors, one that could be decided on which
criteria are most near and dear to this year's voters. Los Angeles
Angels right-hander Jered Weaver's .593 opponents' OPS is the AL best,
and his 2.74 ERA also is respectable. But then there's Justin Verlander
of the Detroit Tigers. He's the clear leader in wins above replacement
(WAR), and nobody can beat him for reputation.
Finishing strong: Detroit's
Max Scherzer is 6-0, 1.29 over his last seven starts and has charged
into the strikeout lead. But with a 3.77 ERA, he has only thrown himself
into the conversation for inclusion on ballots along with Chris Sale of
the Chicago White Sox, Felix Hernandez of the Seattle Mariners and Matt
Harrison of the Texas Rangers.
Stat to know:
.241. Weaver's BABIP (batting average for balls in play) leads the AL
and is far enough from the .300 league average to suggest he has been
pitching into good luck.
When the polls close:
If Price can get the two victories he needs for 20, that and a dominant
ERA lead would be his route to overcoming Verlander's WAR advantage.
NL CY YOUNG
The front-runner:
Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals. Barely. He is one victory away from
the magical 20 plateau and, most important, has become the staff ace
who hasn't been shut down. He gets the nod over New York Mets noted
author R.A. Dickey, who has 18 victories and leads the league with a
2.65 ERA.
Finishing strong: Any
candidate not named Johnny Cueto. The Cincinnati Reds star might have
been the leading candidate entering September, but he has lost his last
three starts, unable to last five innings in his last two games. The
only Cy Young candidate having a worse September is the Los Angeles
Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw, whose right hip might prevent him from
pitching until 2013.
Stat to know: 3.
Dickey, 18-6, has the third-best winning percentage for a team that will
finish below .500, trailing only Sandy Koufax (19-5) for the 1964
Dodgers and Tim Lincecum (18-5) for the 2008 San Francisco Giants. He
will have three more starts to surpass them for the most victories.
When the polls close:
It will go to Gonzalez, making the Nationals look like absolute
geniuses for not only acquiring him from the Oakland Athletics during
the offseason but also having the foresight to lock him into a
five-year, $42 million contract. Dickey might be the best story, but the
fact he hasn't pitched in any meaningful games for the Mets since June
gives Gonzalez perhaps the biggest victory in Washington since the
presidential election.
AL Rookie
The front-runner: As
long as Mike Trout gets the same label in the MVP race, what is there
to say? The Los Angeles Angels outfielder ended this race more than a
month ago.
Finishing strong: Yu Darvish
has overcome a midseason slump to put himself on the periphery of the
Cy Young race. But all the Texas Rangers pitcher can hope for is taking
third-place votes from another hot pitcher, the Oakland Athletics'
Jarrod Parker.
Stat to know: Oakland is
72-40 with Yoenis Cespedes in the lineup. His 71 RBI are six fewer than
Trout's in 80 fewer at-bats. There's as little doubt who finishes
second as who finishes first.
When the polls close: Trout, Cespedes and a little bit of drama for third that could also include Seattle Mariners catcher Jesus Montero.
NL Rookie
The front-runner:
Todd Frazier. He filled in admirably at first base when Joey Votto was
hurt, helping the Cincinnati Reds go a major league-best 32-16 in the
2010 MVP's absence. Frazier since has shifted to third base and cooled
down offensively.
Finishing strong:
Bryce Harper. The Washington Nationals' teenager batted a combined .233
in July and August but has picked up the pace with a .327 September that
includes four home runs.
Stat to know: The 15 wins by Arizona Diamondbacks lefty Wade Miley are tied for second most for an NL rookie since 1986.
When the polls close: Frazier
holds on for the win. He has the highest on-base-plus-slugging
percentage among NL rookies at .862 while ranking second in RBI (62) and
third in homers (18), and he's playing for a certain division winner.
The Colorado Rockies' Wilin Rosario leads the latter two categories but
plays for a last-place team.