Economy trumps other worries

By Chas Sisk, The Tennessean

It's the economy - again.

With job losses mounting, consumer confidence on the decline and Congress passing a $700 billion debt-buyout plan for Wall Street, voters across the country and in Middle Tennessee have turned their attention back to financial issues in resounding numbers.

The state of the nation's economy has started to crowd out all other issues, including health care, education, international terrorism and global warming, to an extent rarely seen on the eve of a presidential election, political scientists and ordinary voters say.

"What everybody's concerned about is their pocketbook," said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon, a Washington, D.C., firm that regularly polls Tennessee voters. "Most of the time, there's a couple of different things. This year, it's the economy."

Those sentiments will be evident at the second presidential debate on Tuesday, where 150 uncommitted voters who live in the Nashville metropolitan area will have their chance to question the candidates.

More than half of Tennessee voters say the economy is the most important issue facing the country, a level of concern that has been eclipsed in recent years only by the worries over international terrorism in the days after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, and the attention paid to foreign policy in the lead-up to the war in Iraq, pollsters say.

Republican and Democratic voters alike now place the economy atop their list of concerns. Voters differ on exactly which aspect of the economy concerns them most, but the issue resonates with voters regardless of age, race, class or gender.

"It's certainly not all about the economy, but it seems to be so deeply entwined in so much of what we're trying to do," said Richard Wommack, 58, a family law attorney from Bellevue who plans to vote for Barack Obama.

"I think government's broken," said his friend Horton Frank, 53, a copyright and entertainment lawyer from Franklin leaning toward John McCain. "The problems in the financial markets are a great example of that."

Voters angry, dismayed

Analysts expect the economy to dominate Tuesday's debate, but other issues probably will crop up as well.

Energy issues should garner some attention, especially after the recent gasoline shortage and price spike in Middle Tennessee. Social issues, such as abortion and gay marriage, also may be discussed, given that the region has a large population of evangelical Christians.

But even among the voters who most often choose their candidates based on their social stances, these questions are falling in importance, pollsters said.

"It seems like the economy and fuel and environmental issues are the things that are being talked about the most," said Mike Waggoner, the owner of Crave Bookstore and Cafe, a Christian bookstore in Lebanon. "It seems like what's talked about by the politicians and on the news is what's talked about around the water cooler."

Issue crosses classes

The economy has been rising in importance among Middle Tennessee voters for more than a year.

Economic concerns first showed up last fall among lower-income people, said Ken Blake, director of the MTSU Poll, a semiannual survey of Tennessee residents conducted by Middle Tennessee State University.

Since then, the state's unemployment rate has risen to 6.6 percent from 4.7 percent, and consumer confidence has plunged.
In September 2007, 63 percent of Middle Tennessee consumers said business conditions in the region were good; now 29 percent agree with that statement.

"The economic pinch was being felt from the bottom of the economic ladder up," Blake said. "A lot of that economic stratification has lessened."

The most recent MTSU Poll, released last week, found that 53 percent of Tennessee residents believed the economy was the biggest problem facing the country. Typically, only about 20 percent of the people surveyed will agree that a single issue is most important, pollsters said.

In interviews last week, local voters said the economy was foremost on their minds. Several said they see the economy's troubles as symptomatic of greater problems.

"They're bailing out the banks, and they're bailing out Wall Street, but they're not bailing out ordinary Americans," said Terry Lee Ballard, 51, a former loan officer who last week lost his home in Madison and moved to a campground in Lebanon.
Others said the attention has started to obscure more basic problems.

"If the candidates could step back and look at the big picture, they would be able to see beyond the immediate crisis," said Tiffany Wilmot, 44, owner of a sustainability consulting business in Nashville.

Financial focuses vary

Voters vary on which aspect of the economy is most important to them.

Brandon Haghany, 19, a student of mass communications at MTSU who was chosen by the Gallup Organization to be in the debate audience Tuesday night, said he plans to focus his question on the rising cost of going to college.

"If I do get a chance to ask a question, it's going to be how would they make tuition affordable," Haghany said.

Meanwhile, Kathryn Garcia, 56, a visual artist and educator from Bellevue, said she will be listening for details on how the candidates plan to intervene in the economy without effectively nationalizing private companies.

"I do not want the federal government to take over any part of my life," she said.

Others will be as focused on the candidates' approach to economic questions as they are on the details of their policies.
"Do these people know what issues Main Street is really suffering from?" said Brandon Daniell, 36, a colleague of Wilmot's who recently moved back to Nashville after spending nine years in New Zealand.

"The thing that is of the greatest concern to me is whether or not we will have the language that will help bring us together as a country after the election," said Sonnye Dixon, 56, a pastor in East Nashville.

John Geer, a professor of political science at Vanderbilt University, said it will be important for voters to see how each candidate handles economic questions.

He drew a comparison to Franklin Roosevelt's 1932 defeat of Herbert Hoover. Republicans frequently accused Roosevelt of dodging questions about how he would bring the nation out of the Great Depression, but voters nonetheless responded to his general message that he would experiment with solutions until one was found.

"The public probably isn't looking for as many specifics as a lot of people would assume," Geer said. "The public doesn't want to know exact fixes."