The Jacksonville Jaguars are on pace to be historically awful. They've been defeated by an average of 24.5 points during their 0-4 start, which is nine more points per game than Detroit was outscored by in its winless 2008 season.
About 400 miles to the west, the Alabama Crimson Tide appear to be rolling toward a third-straight national championship game.
If ever there was a year where the best college football team could beat the worst NFL team, this would be it, right?
Not even close.
According to John Ewing of Prediction Machine, the woeful Jags would beat the powerful Crimson Tide in 91% of games on a neutral field. The average score of the simulations is 32-13 in favor of the Jags. In other words, Jacksonville beats Alabama by about the same margin as Alabama beats Colorado State.
Interestingly, the Jaguars only had a 5% chance of beating Seattle during the team's Week 3 game at CenturyLink Field, meaning Jacksonville had less of a chance to beat an NFL team than Alabama would at beating Jacksonville. So though it's far-fetched for an NFL also-ran to lose to an NCAA powerhouse, there's still a slight chance it could happen. If every dog has its day, why can't Blaine Gabbert?
Ewing ran some other numbers to get context on how bad the 2013 Jaguars are. He found that in a matchup between this team and the expansion Jaguars from 1995, the expansion team would win 65% of the time. Impressively, Jacksonville is somehow worse than it was as an NFL newbie.