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Poll: Bredesen holds double-digit lead over Blackburn in US Senate race

Forty-five percent of self-described independents said they would vote for Bredesen while only 33 percent of such voters said they would vote for Blackburn, the MTSU poll found.

Former Gov. Phil Bredesen has a 10-point lead over U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn in the race to succeed U.S. Sen. Bob Corker, according to a new poll from Middle Tennessee State University.

The poll, released Thursday, found 45 percent of 600 registered Tennessee voters said they would choose Bredesen, a Democrat and former Nashville mayor, if the election were immediately held.

Credit: Rick Diamond
Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen speaks about Singer & Songwriter Dolly Parton during her induction into the Music City Walk of Fame, At Hall of Fame Park on Nov. 8, 2009, in Nashville, Tennessee. Photo by Rick Diamond/Getty Images

Blackburn, a Brentwood Republican, netted 35 percent, with another 17 percent of respondents saying they were not sure.

Three percent of respondents declined to answer.

MORE: New poll finds Bredesen with narrow lead over Blackburn in US Senate race

The latest poll is the first survey released this year to suggest Bredesen has a double-digit lead over Blackburn.

The MTSU poll also found Bredesen had a considerable advantage over Blackburn in terms of getting support from voters on the other side of the aisle.

Forty-five percent of self-described independents said they would vote for Bredesen while only 33 percent of such voters said they would vote for Blackburn, the poll found.

MORE: With Corker out, Blackburn wants to unify Republican Party to beat Bredesen

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(Photo: Samuel M. Simpkins / File / The Tennessean)

wenty percent of Republican respondents said they would vote for Bredesen while 5 percent of Democrats said they would vote for Blackburn.

The political makeup of the poll's respondents included 34 percent Republicans, 25 percent Democrats and 28 percent independents. Another 8 percent said "something else."

In an interview, Ken Blake, director of the MTSU poll, said Bredesen's support among Republicans is hardly shocking given his popularity within the party while governor from 2003 to 2011.

"I think some of that good will or social capital that he built up as governor may be paying dividends for him now," Blake said.

On the other hand, Blake said Blackburn is trying to appeal to more "core conservatives."

"If she ends up having to kind of attract some moderate Democrats or Republican leaning independents, it could be a challenge," said Blake.

The MTSU poll is the latest survey indicating Bredesen would beat Blackburn in a head-to-head matchup. Last month, a poll from a Democratic-leaning firm showed Bredesen had a 5 percent lead over Blackburn.

But other polls have shown Blackburn would beat Bredesen.

With so many respondents still undecided on the race, Blake surmised that many Tennesseans are distracted by the consistent flow of news and developments out of Washington, D.C.

The MTSU poll did not include questions about other Republican candidates seeking the nomination for U.S. Senate, or favorability and name recognition for Blackburn and Bredesen.

Also seeking the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate are Williamson County businessman Darrell Lynn, former Memphis Grizzlies ophthalmologist Rolando Toyos and perennial candidate Larry Crim.

Corker in September announced he would not seek a third term. He reiterated that decision in February.

In MTSU's last poll, conducted in October, respondents weighed in on favorability of Blackburn and Bredesen, and others.

Governor's race

Beyond the U.S. Senate race, the latest MTSU poll featured questions on the governor's race, as well as voters' views on Corker, President Donald Trump, U.S. Sen. Lamar Alexander and Gov. Bill Haslam.

The poll found 30 percent of respondents had a favorable view of Knoxville entrepreneur Randy Boyd and U.S. Rep. Diane Black.

Former Nashville Mayor Karl Dean, a Democrat, had a positive view among 26 percent of respondents, followed by House Speaker Beth Harwell, R-Nashville, who netted 23 percent.

Williamson County businessman Bill Lee and House Minority Leader Craig Fitzhugh trailed the pack, with 16 percent of respondents have a positive view of each candidate.

Fitzhugh and Dean are seeking the Democratic nomination, while Black, Boyd, Harwell and Lee are seeking to GOP nomination.

In terms of negative views, Black led the way. A total of 38 percent of respondents said they had a negative view of her. Respondents ranked Dean second in terms of negative views with 32 percent.

In MTSU's October poll, 31 percent of respondents had a negative view of Black.

In the latest poll, the negative views of the other candidates were: Harwell, 29 percent; Fitzhugh, 28 percent; Lee, 24 percent; and Boyd, 23 percent.

Blake said the biggest findings on the governor's race is how many people remain undecided. Roughly a quarter of respondents said they did not know and favor or oppose any of the gubernatorial candidates, leaving room for the hopefuls to pick up support.

"The unusually interesting political dramas playing out in Washington right now have to be a distraction for everybody in the country as well as voters in Tennessee," he said.

Presidential approval rating

The poll found 50 percent of respondents had a favorable view of Trump's job performance while 41 percent disapproved. Eight percent said they did not know, with another one percent declining to answer.

The president's approval rating is similar to MTSU's October poll, which found 50 percent approved of his job and 41 percent disapproved.

"The president’s stable approval ratings in Tennessee could be a positive sign for Blackburn, who has been aligning herself with him in her campaign advertising,” Blake said in a news release. “But the same numbers indicate he is a polarizing figure, which could be a problem for Blackburn if she ends up needing help from voters outside Trump’s base.”

Reach Joel Ebert at jebert@tennessean.com or 615-772-1681 and on Twitter @joelebert29.

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