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VERIFY: Are there more homicides in Knoxville this year?

In light of recent deadly shootings, we looked at the data to see whether Knoxville's homicide rate is on the rise.

The last few weeks in Knoxville have been marked by police lights. 13 people have died in 10 shootings since mid-May.

Just on Thursday, two men from Michigan were shot and killed at a South Knoxville apartment complex. Hours later, a disagreement between neighbors turned violent in North Knox County, leaving two men dead and a woman injured.

“Between the homicides and the overdose deaths, there are a lot of people losing their lives right now,” said Knoxville Police Chief David Rausch.

KPD Chief David Rausch discusses the recent killings.

KPD has investigated 19 homicide cases since Jan. 1, while the Knox County Sheriff’s Office has handled 4. Two of those are cases involved KCSO deputies shooting suspects, and will likely be removed from the end totals, officials say.

So with 21 homicide cases in mind, we set out to Verify: is there a spike in homicides in Knoxville? It’s a question often raised on the 10News Facebook page.

Verify is a project to make sure what you've heard is true.

In 2016, Knox County saw 26 murders, according to data reported to the Tennessee Bureau of Investigation. 18 of those cases fell to KPD.

Removing the office-involving shootings, KPD has seen 18 homicides already in 2017, with half of the year remaining. So 10News can Verify: there are more homicides than usual for the first half of this year.

A comparison of KPD homicide cases in 2016 and so far in 2017.

Rausch said he believes many of these killings are drug-related, and are not random crimes.

“You know, it’s all part of the ongoing issues we have in this community with drugs,” he said. “It really is. We’re seeing these homicides, this increase. They’re all tied.”

"You know in terms of the general public, going out and having a fear of a problem like this, that doesn’t exist," he added. "The real issue is if you’re involved in these challenging activities, that’s where you have to be concerned.”

Even with the current trend, Knoxville still has not hit the yearly average of 24-25 homicides. And we’re still well-below the deadliest recorded year in KPD data, when there were 35 homicides in 1998.

The highest year for homicides was 1998, KPD said, with 35.

So in terms of whole numbers, there have not been more murders this year.

And then there’s the issue of context: using TBI data, 10News compared the per capita murder rates by city for 2016.

KPD’s jurisdiction has 0.1 killing per 1000 residents. Knox County has 0.06. Both are below Memphis (0.31), Nashville (0.12) and Chattanooga (0.15).

Murder rates per 1000 residents in some Tennessee cities.

The city rate is above the state average of 0.07, though that does include less-populated areas.

So to the question often asked on Facebook: is Knoxville more dangerous that other cities? In the context of the data, 10News can Verify it is not. Though there has been an increase in recent homicides, there’s no way to tell if that trend will continue through the end of the year.

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