NASHVILLE, Tenn. — The results of Vanderbilt University's semiannual poll of voters were released on Wednesday, covering its Spring 2024 period.
The poll was conducted by the Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions and included 1,003 registered voters across Tennessee. It conducts the poll at least twice a year — right before the start of the legislative session and after it ends. The center said it is conducted through telephone interviews.
The center also said it weighs statistical results to accurately represent different demographics across the state. The poll's Board of Advisors also evaluates the poll before it is given to voters. The board includes attorneys, CEOs, a political strategist, a former Nashville mayor and more.
The poll separates voters by "Non-MAGA Republicans," MAGA Republicans," "Democrats/Leaning Democrat" and "Independents."
"Go out and vote in August. You have time right now to register. Get registered, learn what you can about the candidates, and vote. That is the League's primary push in most states, and especially in Tennessee," said Lisa Carroll, from the League of Women Voters in East Tennessee.
Candidates and Priorities
It found that non-MAGA Republicans mostly prioritized the economy and jobs, excluding factors related to inflation. Almost all parties were equally concerned about inflation, except Democratic voters. Around 5% of polled Democratic voters listed it as their top priority.
Around 26% of Democratic voters ranked gun safety as their top priority — far outweighing other parties in the same category.
Around 21% of Democratic voters also prioritized education, exceeding Independents. Around 14% of Independents ranked education as their top concern. Immigration was the leading concern for MAGA-Republicans, with 27% ranking it as their top priority.
It also found that Donald Trump was the preferred presidential candidate for both men and women in the poll. Around 53% of men said they would prefer Donald Trump and around 42% of women said they preferred him. Around 35% of women said they would prefer Joe Biden and 23% said they would prefer Biden.
The poll also examined how a felony conviction would impact Trump's presidential prospects, asking members of each party if they would vote for him should he be convicted of one or more felonies. Around 96% of MAGA-Republicans said they would vote for him without a conviction, and 88% said they would vote for him with a conviction.
Around 74% of non-MAGA Republicans said they would vote for him today without a felony conviction, and 67% said they would vote for him with a felony conviction. Around 38% of Independents said they would vote for him today both with and without a felony conviction.
Rep. Gloria Johnson (D - Knoxville) is also making a bid for the U.S. Senate, and 93% of Democratic voters said they would cast a ballot for her. Around 7% of non-MAGA Republicans said they would vote for her, and 40% of Independents also said they would vote for her.
Around 92% of MAGA Republicans and 85% of non-MAGA Republicans said they would instead vote for Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R - TN). Around 46% of Independents also said they would vote for her.
Medicaid Expansion
The poll found around 97% of Democratic voters supported expanding Medicaid to cover more uninsured people, and so did 38% of MAGA Republicans and 38% of non-MAGA Republicans. Around 61% of Independents also said they wanted to expand it.
Around 58% of MAGA Republicans said they wanted to keep Medicaid as it is, and so did 52% of non-MAGA Republicans. Only 3% of Democratic voters said they wanted to keep Medicaid the same, and so did 33% of Independents.
Gun Restrictions and Gun Access
The poll asked voters if they supported or opposed passing laws that restrict gun access for people determined to be at a high risk of hurting themselves or others, to reduce gun violence. It found support across the political spectrum, with the majority of voters in every party saying they supported it. In total, around 76% of polled voters said they somewhat or strongly supported the proposal.
In total, the poll also found the majority of Republicans at least somewhat support proposals that arm teachers. At the same time, around 85% of Democratic voters opposed the idea. In total, voters across the state were almost evenly split on the proposal.
Around 47% of all polled voters said they supported arming teachers, and around 47% of polled voters opposed it. Most of the people opposing it were women, and most of the people supporting it were men.
The poll also asked voters whether they would support expanding state law to let people openly carry any type of gun, including rifles. While MAGA Republicans were evenly split on the proposal, people across the political spectrum said they would not support it. Only 27% said they would support it and 71% said they would not.
Abortion
The poll also asked voters their opinions on abortion access, at first asking whether they identified as "pro-life" or "pro-choice." Around 78% of MAGA Republicans and around 69% of non-MAGA Republicans said they were at least somewhat pro-life, while around 81% of Democrats said they were definitely pro-choice and 12% said they were somewhat pro-choice.
Around 43% of Independents said they were at least somewhat pro-life, and around 54% of Independents said they were at least somewhat pro-choice.
The poll noted an uptick in the number of voters who said they wanted improved access to abortion care. In 2014, around 45% of voters said they were pro-choice. A decade later, the poll said around 52% of voters identified as being at least somewhat pro-choice — exceeding the number of voters who said they were at least somewhat pro-life by around 8%.
A strong majority of voters also said in vitro fertilization should be legal, and a majority of voters also said it was not a moral issue, across all party affiliations.
Threats to democracy
Across all party affiliations, the poll found that voters believed "American democracy is under attack." However, parties identified different reasons for each attack — with Democratic voters and Republican voters largely blaming each other.
Around 78% of MAGA Republicans believed democracy was under attack, along with 57% of non-MAGA Republicans. Around 62% of Democratic voters said they believed it was under attack, and so did 57% of Independent voters.
"Republicans see the threat is coming from Democrats and Democrats see the threat is coming from Republicans. There's a big partisan divide that's affecting citizens in the state," said Carroll. "I'm not sure if this data shows us how to have a civil conversation. But I think it's it raises for all of us how important it is to have a civil conversation."